Effects of cedi volatility on importation in Ghana.
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Date
2017-06
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KNUST
Abstract
This study focuses on the effects of cedi volatility on importation in Ghana. Time series data covering thirty years have been used for the analysis. Trend analysis was carried out on the volatility of the Ghana cedi. Unit root test were conducted to determine the stationarity of the variables using Phillip-Peron test. To determine whether the variables for the study move together in the long-run Johansen cointegration test was conducted. The results indicated absence of cointegration among the variable. Consequently Vector Autoregressive (VAR) approach was employed to analyze the variables.
The results of trend analysis for the study revealed that, the exchange rate of Ghana when compared to the dollar kept rising from 1986 to 2015 due to ineffective policies in controlling the volatility of the exchange rate. The study also indicated that, imports and exports were found to be increasing since 1986 to 2015, with highest imports and exports being taking place in China and Burkina Faso respectively. The results of the importation and vice versa. time series data using VAR revealed that the higher the exchange rate the higher the importation in Ghana. It was also revealed that an increase in gross domestic product and exchange rate increase importation, whilst a decrease in inflation decreases
In order to control the volatility of the exchange rate, the government and bank of Ghana should put in place appropriate fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing the currencyand reduce inflation to a single-digit. The study also recommends government to help in the establishment of manufacturing industries in Ghana to reduce the level of dependence on imported goods.
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A Thesis Submitted In Partial Fulfillment Of The Requirement For The Degree Of Master Of Business Administration (Finance Option).