Exploring the Need for Developing Impact-Based Forecasting in West Africa

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dc.contributor.authorNkiaka Elias
dc.contributor.authorTaylor Andrea
dc.contributor.authorDougill J Andrew
dc.contributor.authorAntwi- Agyei Philip
dc.contributor.authorAdefisa Adesanya Elijah
dc.contributor.authorAhiataku A Maureen
dc.contributor.authorAta -Baffour Frank
dc.contributor.authorFournier Nicholas
dc.contributor.authorIndasi S Victor
dc.contributor.authorKonte Oumar
dc.contributor.authorLawal Abiodun Kamoru
dc.contributor.authorToure Awa
dc.contributor.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8599-474X
dc.date.accessioned2023-12-19T14:16:30Z
dc.date.available2023-12-19T14:16:30Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.descriptionThis article is published by original research and is also available at doi: 10.3389/fclim.2020.565500
dc.description.abstractWhile conventional weather forecasts focus on meteorological thresholds for extreme events, Impact-Based Forecasts (IBF) integrate information about the potential severity of weather impacts with their likelihood of occurrence. As IBF provides an indication of local risk, there is an increasing uptake of this approach globally. Despite the vulnerability ofWest Africa to severe weather, and the potential benefits of such a risk-based approach for informing disaster risk reduction, IBF remains rarely used in this region. To meet this need, three national workshops were held in Ghana, Nigeria and Senegal with forecasters, project researchers and users of Climate Information Services (CIS) from key sectors (e.g., agriculture, water resources, disaster, risk reduction). In addition, a more localized district level workshop was held in Northern Ghana to explore needs at a subnational scale in Tamale District. The objectives of these workshops were to evaluate the current use of forecast products provided by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and to explore the potential for applying IBF. Findings indicate a recognition that the quality of forecast products provided by NMHSs in West Africa has substantially improved in recent years. However, challenges remain related to user understanding, clarity about forecast uncertainty, insufficient spatial and temporal resolution of forecasts leading to limited trust in forecasts. The workshops identified high demand for weather information related to storms, droughts and heatwaves in all the three countries. Dust storms were identified as having strong potential for IBF application in both Nigeria and Senegal. To increase the uptake of CIS by users in West Africa, NMHSs will need to develop and implement user-tailored IBF in their normal weather forecast approaches and improve communication channels with user communities. There is an urgent need for governments in West Africa to enhance the capacity of NMHSs to incorporate IBF as a routine forecast activity by first establishing a National Framework for Climate Services with user engagement as a key first pillar.
dc.description.sponsorshipKNUST
dc.identifier.citationdoi: 10.3389/fclim.2020.565500
dc.identifier.uridoi: 10.3389/fclim.2020.565500
dc.identifier.urihttps://ir.knust.edu.gh/handle/123456789/14941
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisheroriginal research
dc.relation.ispartofseriesFront. Clim. 2:565500.; Front. Clim. 2:565500.
dc.titleExploring the Need for Developing Impact-Based Forecasting in West Africa
dc.typeArticle
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