Modeling Demand for a Telecommunication Utility Operator Based On the Box-Jenkins Methodology

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Telecommunication Demand Modeling has been a problem both in Ghana and the global world and has been under study for a long period of time. Developments in new communication technologies such as mobile devices and developments of new services to meet user demand such as video, multi-media and data services has led to an exponential growth in the demand for these services.In Ghana, the national regulator, the National Communications Authority puts cellular phone penetration in the country at about seventy percent (70%). The sharp increase in the number of customers over a short period and limited infrastructure has led users to raise concerns over the quality of service been offered. It is in this light that this thesis attempts to solve a case study of the telecommunication demand modeling for a leading cellular company in Ghana. Worldwide,different approaches have been employed in solving this very sensitive demand problem. The thesis employed the Box- Jenkins methodology to develop a near perfect ARIMA (2, 1, 0) model with the corresponding equation being that can adequately forecast the future rise in the subscriber base so that this can be carefully factored in planning so proper decisions can be taken to minimize this demand problem. With a mean absolute error of 8405 which is insignificant when considering the nation Ghana as a whole.
A Thesis submitted to the School of Graduate Studies, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Telecommunications Engineering, May-2012