Assessing Climate Driven Malaria Variability in Ghana Using a Regional Scale Dynamical Model
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Date
2017-03-05
Authors
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Publisher
Climate
Abstract
Malaria is a major public health challenge in Ghana and adversely affects the productivity
and economy of the country. Although malaria is climate driven, there are limited studies
linking climate variability and disease transmission across the various agro-ecological zones
in Ghana. We used the VECTRI (vector-borne disease community model of the International
Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste) model with a new surface hydrology scheme to investigate
the spatio-temporal variability in malaria transmission patterns over the four agro-ecological
zones in Ghana. The model is driven using temperature and rainfall datasets obtained from
the GMet (Ghana Meteorological Agency) synoptic stations between 1981 and 2010. In addition,
the potential of the VECTRI model to simulate seasonal pattern of local scale malaria incidence
is assessed. The model results reveal that the simulated malaria transmission follows rainfall
peaks with a two-month time lag. Furthermore, malaria transmission ranges from eight to
twelve months, with minimum transmission occurring between February and April. The results
further reveal that the intra- and inter-agro-ecological variability in terms of intensity and duration
of malaria transmission are predominantly controlled by rainfall. The VECTRI simulated EIR
(Entomological Inoculation Rate) tends to agree with values obtained from field surveys across
the country. Furthermore, despite being a regional model, VECTRI demonstrates useful skill
in reproducing monthly variations in reported malaria cases from Emena hospital (a peri urban
town located within Kumasi metropolis). Although further refinements in this surface hydrology
scheme may improve VECTRI performance, VECTRI still possesses the potential to provide useful
information for malaria control in the tropics
Description
An article published by Climate 2017, 5, 20; doi:10.3390/cli5010020
Keywords
VECTRI, malaria, EIR, surface hydrology
Citation
Climate 2017, 5, 20; doi:10.3390/cli5010020