Browsing by Author "Opoku, Nicholas Kwasi-Do Ohene"

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    Mathematical modelling of the transmission dynamics of Marburg virus disease with optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis based on lessons from Ebola virus disease
    (Springer, 2024) Reindorf, Nartey Borkor; Amoah-Mensah, John; Opoku, Nicholas Kwasi-Do Ohene; Boateng, Francis Ohene; Bonsu, Kwame; Afosaa, Vida; Afutu, Rhoda; 0000-0002-5721-4638
    Marburg virus, like Ebola, causes haemorrhagic disease with high fatality rates. We developed a deterministic SEIRDVT model incorporating vaccination and treatment to study the disease dynamics. Qualitative analysis revealed a backward bifurcation when R0 = 1, meaning R0 < 1 is insufficient to eradicate the virus. Sensitivity analysis using Latin Hypercube Sampling showed that applying four control measures—screening, prevention, continuous vaccination, and treatment—significantly reduced transmission. The most cost-effective strategy combines prevention, vaccination, and treatment. These findings provide a framework for designing efficient interventions to combat Marburg virus.
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    Modelling the Transmission Dynamics of Meningitis among High and Low-Risk People in Ghana with Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
    (Hindawi, 2022-11-21) Reindorf, Nartey Borkor; Opoku, Nicholas Kwasi-Do Ohene; Adu, Andrews Frimpong; Nyarko, Hannah Nyarkoah; Doughan, Albert; Appiah, Edwin Moses; Yakubu, Biigba; Mensah, Isabel; Salifu, Samson Pandam; 0000-0002-5721-4638
    Meningitis is an inflammation of the meninges, which covers the brain and spinal cord. Every year, most individuals within sub- Saharan Africa suffer from meningococcal meningitis. Moreover, tens of thousands of these cases result in death, especially during major epidemics. The transmission dynamics of the disease keep changing, according to health practitioners. The goal of this study is to exploit robust mechanisms to manage and prevent the disease at a minimal cost due to its public health implications. A significant concern found to aid in the transmission of meningitis disease is the movement and interaction of individuals from low-risk to high-risk zones during the outbreak season. Thus, this article develops a mathematical model that ascertains the dynamics involved in meningitis transmissions by partitioning individuals into low- and high-risk susceptible groups. After computing the basic reproduction number, the model is shown to exhibit a unique local asymptotically stability at the meningitisfree equilibrium E†, when the effective reproduction number R0 < 1, and the existence of two endemic equilibria for which R†0 < R0 < 1 and exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, which shows the difficulty of relying only on the reproduction number to control the disease. The effective reproductive number estimated in real time using the exponential growth method affirmed that the number of secondary meningitis infections will continue to increase without any intervention or policies. To find the best strategy for minimizing the number of carriers and infected individuals, we reformulated the model into an optimal control model using Pontryagin’s maximum principles with intervention measures such as vaccination, treatment, and personal protection. Although Ghana’s most preferred meningitis intervention method is via treatment, the model’s simulations demonstrated that the best strategy to control meningitis is to combine vaccination with treatment. But the cost-effectiveness analysis results show that vaccination and treatment are among the most expensive measures to implement. For that reason, personal protection which is the most cost-effective measure needs to be encouraged, especially among individuals migrating from low- to high-risk meningitis belts.