Browsing by Author "Mawusi, Amexo Habel"

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    A time series analysis of number of patients in five departments of Ho Regional Hospital
    (KNUST, 2019-06-16) Mawusi, Amexo Habel
    Continuous increase in human population and economy, causes a rise in healthcare demand. Overcrowding in the departments of the hospitals of Ghana specically has become an increasingly important problem of late. The study aimed to develop a time series model for forecasting the monthly volume of patients admission to the five departments of the Ho Regional Hospital (Traflagar). To achieve the objectives of the present study, the researcher herein employed time series analysis to study the random pattern of admission into the various departments of the aforementioned hospital and as such the Box-Jenkins procedure was used to ARIMA and seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) models to the data collected. Analysis of the data indicated that the various series show seasonality and hence the Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) models were better in fitting the admission data (having smaller mean squared errors of forecasting) than the non-seasonal ARIMA models. It was further observed that the admission to the emergency ward will fluctuate steadily from January to August. Admission will decrease in September and October and rise in November and December for the year 2019. Moreover, the admission to the male ward will have significant in March, May, June and September respectively for the 2019 year. The female ward admission for 2019 will increase but with study fluctuation between January and June. Admission reduces afterwards and an increase in October and November. In addition, the admission to the maternity ward tend to be very stable with little fluctuation. Admission fluctuates steadily for all months of the year. Finally, the forecast for children for the four years saw a significant increase in December.