Browsing by Author "Afosaa, Vida"

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    Mathematical modelling of the transmission dynamics of Marburg virus disease with optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis based on lessons from Ebola virus disease
    (Springer, 2024) Reindorf, Nartey Borkor; Amoah-Mensah, John; Opoku, Nicholas Kwasi-Do Ohene; Boateng, Francis Ohene; Bonsu, Kwame; Afosaa, Vida; Afutu, Rhoda; 0000-0002-5721-4638
    Marburg virus, like Ebola, causes haemorrhagic disease with high fatality rates. We developed a deterministic SEIRDVT model incorporating vaccination and treatment to study the disease dynamics. Qualitative analysis revealed a backward bifurcation when R0 = 1, meaning R0 < 1 is insufficient to eradicate the virus. Sensitivity analysis using Latin Hypercube Sampling showed that applying four control measures—screening, prevention, continuous vaccination, and treatment—significantly reduced transmission. The most cost-effective strategy combines prevention, vaccination, and treatment. These findings provide a framework for designing efficient interventions to combat Marburg virus.
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    Survival analysis of dropout rate at the basic school level: (Case study: Northern Ghana)
    (2009-08-08) Afosaa, Vida
    Development and growth cannot be experienced in any part of the world without good education. Basic education is one of the effective investments in improving economies, reducing illiteracy, creating self-reliant and healthy society. In view of this, government and NGOs have constituted various policies and intervention programmes to make sure children of school going age enroll, attend and remain in school till completion (at least the basic level). Despite these efforts, studies have shown that dropout rates remain high in rural areas and in the three northern regions of Ghana. The purpose of the research is to estimate the probability of a child dropping out of school at some point within the basic level in Northern Ghana. Data was obtained from the Ministry of Education Youth and Sports on annual enrollment levels for each district for the years 2000 to 2007. Survival Analysis which is a time to event analysis was used to investigate the effect of gender and region on survival time (i.e. time before dropout). Particularly, the Kaplan-Meier method was utilized for plotting the survival and hazard functions. Log rank test was used to compare the survival curves. The Cox Proportional Hazards Model was used to fit the data. Findings indicated that the region of a child has significant effect on the potential of his/her dropout of school. On the other hand, gender had no significant influence on a pupil’s dropout rate. The analysis also indicated that the Upper West region has the lowest hazard of dropout and Northern Region has the highest Hazard of dropout of school. It was also discovered that on the average, the potential of a child dropping out of school occurred mostly at primary 2, 5 and 6. It is suggested that interventions to reduce dropout rates should not be focused only on female pupils but on male pupils as well.