Statistical models of infant mortality due to malaria (a case of Kumasi District and Kath)

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Date
2016
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Abstract
The research examines the factors that contribute to infant deaths at the Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital (KATH) from 2010 to 2015(March) with malaria being the main focus, assesses the occurrence and incidence of infant deaths in Kumasi district from 2008 to 2014 and determines the survival rate of infants in the Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital (KATH). Poisson and logistic regression models, the Kaplan-Meier estimate and the Cox Regression model are employed. Poisson regression model is used to examine the occurrence and incidence of infant deaths while logistic regression is used to assess the factors that contribute to infant deaths at KATH. The Kaplan –Meier estimate and Cox Regression model are used to determine the survival rate of infants in the Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital (KATH). SPSS statistical software is used to analyze the data. Results show that the mean number of occurrence of infant mortality is higher in 2008, 2009 and 2012 as compared to 2014 (reference year) and also establishes that the mean number of occurrence of infant mortality significantly reduced over the study period 2008-2014. The incidence of infant mortality is higher in 2008, 2009 and 2012 as compared to 2014 (reference year). It is also found that, the mean incidence of infant death cases reduced significantly during the study period. Finally, it is revealed that duration of stay in the hospital contributed significantly to infant death at the KATH. Malaria, did not contribute significantly to the outcome. Infants diagnosed of a disease apart from malaria generally have a higher probability of dying than those diagnosed of malaria. However, an infant with malaria has zero (0) probability of surviving if the duration of stay in the hospital extends to 297 days (approximately 10 months) whereas an infant without malaria has zero (0) probability of surviving at 310 days (a little above 10 months).
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A thesis submitted to The Department of Mathematics, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology in partial fufillment of the requirement for the degree of M.Phil Mathematical Statistics,
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