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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/7267

Title: The Financial Impact of Risk Factors Affecting Project Cost Contingency: Evidential Reasoning Method
Authors: Teye Buertey, Joseph Ignatius
Abeere-Inga, Emmanuel
Adjei Kumi, Theophilus
Keywords: Work sections
epistemic uncertainty
project specific risk
systemic risk
cost risk
evidential reasoning methods
Issue Date: 2013
Publisher: Journal of Engineering, Project, and Production Management
Citation: Journal of Engineering, Project, and Production Management 2013, 3(2), 65-73
Abstract: The process of cost modeling using risk analysis for construction projects is very crucial for the achievement of project success. The purpose of this paper is to present an analysis of the financial impact of risk factors affecting key construction work sections; using a systematic risk methodology based on empirical judgment. The failure mode effect analysis (FMEA) and the evidential reasoning methods are presented as qualitative and quantitative risk tools respectively. Data analysis from structured questionnaires revealed that four work sections are prone to high scope changes contemporaneous with seven risk factors. Contrary to the usual 10% contingency estimate allowed for construction projects in Ghana, an approximate overall physical contingency range of between 13.36% and 17.88% was determined using evidential reasoning methods. The likely impact of the integrated work sections and risk factors provide a clue to estimators on how to estimate and account for project cost contingency. The research concludes by recommending a framework for improving the estimation process of cost contingency through the integration of efficient risk management strategies, cost estimation and design management process.
Description: Article published in Journal of Engineering, Project, and Production Management, 2013.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/7267
Appears in Collections:College of Architecture and Planning

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