Modeling the contribution of high risk imports to National Revenue – A case study of the Tema Harbor
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Date
2014-10-29
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Abstract
Effective Revenue Mobilization has been the bedrock of many countries including Ghana and over the years the importations of High Risk Goods have featured prominently in the revenue mobilization process. Recently, there have been indications by Governments past and present to place a ban on the importation of the High Risk Goods. This research was aimed at assessing the contribution of the High Risk Goods to National Revenue and their effect on Revenue Mobilization if a ban is placed on their importation into the country. For the sake of this research work, secondary data was obtained from the Policy Department of the Customs Division of the Ghana Revenue Authority (GRA) on the High Risk Goods which include Used Clothing, Used Fridges, Used Microwaves and Used Auto parts. The others are Rice Products and Used Computers and Accessories. Regression Analysis, Time Series and ANOVA were used to analyse the data and to formulate a model for forecasting the National Revenue for the next ten (10) years. The results showed that the High Risk Goods contributes significantly to National Revenue and a ban on them will affect National Revenue Mobilization. The proposed model for forecasting the National Revenue is
Total Duty = 327624.460 - 0.278*TNW + 0.342*TPkg + 0.943*CIF + error, where Total Duty is synonymous with National Revenue for the sake of this research work. It is highly recommended that an extensive assessment should be conducted on the intangible gains that will be made in terms of health and environmental safety if the ban is placed on the said products.
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A thesis submitted to the Department of Mathematics, Kwame Nkrumah
University of Science and Technology
in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the Degree of
Master of Science
Mathematics Department,
Institute of Distance Learning,