Estimating the Impact of the Cocoa Hi-tech and Mass Spraying Programmes on Cocoa Production in Ghana: An application of Intervention Analysis
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Date
2012
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Abstract
Using the intervention time series analysis of Box and Tiao, this thesis presents an estimate of the level and nature of impact of the national mass spraying and the cocoa Hi-technology Government intervention programmes, implemented in 2002 and 2003 respectively, on cocoa production in Ghana. Annual time series cocoa production data covering the period from 1948 to 2011 was obtained from the Monitoring, Research and Evaluation Department of Ghana’s COCOBOD. Results from the study indicate that the preintevention period could best be modeled with an AR(1) process. The effects of both intervention programmes were found to be abrupt and permanent. The impact of the mass spraying programme was estimated (at 95% confidence level) to have had a significant increase of 182,398.2 metric tonnes annually. It was also found that the cocoa Hi-technology programme significantly (at 95% confidence level) increased production by 266,515.1 metric tonnes per annum.
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A Thesis submitted to the Department of Mathematics in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of the degree of MASTER OF PHILOSOPHY
(APPLIED MATHEMATICS)